
Chandler home with pool, near Intel, Chandler Regional Hospital, Fulton Ranch, Tumbleweed Park, Ocoillo golf courses
Instead of giving you the full blown statistical update this month, I thought I’d share some real life practical experience situations that have occurred to me recently.
First, let me give a mini version of the numbers. Most numbers pretty much stayed the same from the November update, except the pricing numbers:
- The number of homes sold in November was up 8% as compared to November 2010
- Active listings (# of homes on the market) were down 50% as compared to November 2010
- Then it’s no surprise, days inventory on the market were down almost 50% also
- The Ave sales price per Sq Ft was up .09% from November 2010 BUT more importantly it is UP 6.5% from the low on September 15, 2011. That is called appreciation.
- The mix of Foreclosed, Short Sales and “Normal” homes available to sell continues to change. The foreclosed number is decreasing, while short sales and normal are a growing %. The breakdown of type of homes on the market is 9.1% Foreclosed, 52.4% normal and 38.5% short sale.
- Homes currently under contract (Pending) have a higher price in all 3 categories: foreclosed, short sales and normal sales
In summary, the supply of homes available is continuing to go down, especially the foreclosures and the pricing of homes that have actually closed in November & December has been going up. The pricing of homes currently under contract (Pending) and should be closing in January and February has an even high price per sq ft. If you also add the increase in demand for starter priced homes because we are entering the winter visitor season, this all points to a projected upward trend in the market for the 1st half of 2012.
Now on to the practical side of things let me share some examples that have occurred to me in the market place. I have had 3 short sale transaction fall apart (cancel) in the last 30 days. Let me give you a little background information on each:
- I represented an investor buyer of a short sale home in Laveen. The original contract price was $60,000. This would have provided a good positive cash flow from the rental income with substantial upside appreciation. When we were about 5 months into the short sale process, the lender came back and said they thought the home should be priced at $65,000. The buyer increased their purchase price to $65K, so we thought we had an agreed upon price. At that point, the seller decided he wanted to apply for the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program for short sellers. There is a $3000“relocation assistance” payable to the seller so it made sense. The lender had agreed to the short sale price but they had to re-process the short sale through the HAFA program. After 2 more months of paper work processing, the short sale bank came back and thought the house was really worth $74,000. My buyer had enough and cancelled the contract. Interesting enough, the market had probably gone up during that waiting processing time but in the buyer’s eyes, it didn’t make any sense. Unfortunately, when my investor buyer went back into the market to look for another home they were surprised to see there weren’t the same “great deals” out there like there were 7 months ago. See my summary above. PS: I talked to the listing agent and she received multiple offers above the banks $74,000 price. So it looks like the market has “gone up”. Remember the old adage, the market price is where ever you have a ready and willing Buyer and Seller (and bank) agreeing on a price.
- I represent the seller on another short sale in Laveen. We had it listed at $119,000 for over a month with no offers and very few showings. I dropped the price to $105,000 and got an offer for $102,000 within a week. After a relative short 2 month short sale processing time period, the bank came back and said they thought the house was worth $117,000. The buyer wasn’t going to increase her purchase price. The bank came back with a lowered counter price of $111,000. The buyer said the house wasn’t worth that much (to her) and she cancelled the contract. I put it back on the market and within less than a week I received a contract for $112,000. Again, it looks like the market has gone up.
- I have an investor buyer looking to purchase condos in Tempe because they would make great rentals with a positive cash flow and tax advantage, especially with the ASU rental demand. About 3 months ago, we found 2 units in the same complex, both short sales. We got both under contract in the $75,000 price range. This week, the bank (FHA) decided to go ahead and foreclose on one of the condos. They didn’t even come back and say they wanted more than the original $75,000. From talking to the listing agent she has started to see this happen more and more. Why? It sure flies counter to the government’s public policy and what you are hearing over and over from the banks…”we want to do everything possible to prevent foreclosures”. We had a very willing buyer (ready to pay more) and he didn’t even get the chance. I even tried to arrange for him to buy it at the foreclosure Trustee Sale but the bank set the minimum opening bid at $214,000. There is no way anybody would bid on it. So it guarantees the bank would get it back. I have talked to my buyer about purchasing it as a foreclosure, as soon as the bank puts it up for sale. I have had this happen before to a different buyer and he ended up purchasing it for a lower price. Banks… go figure.
In summary, the statistical numbers show the supply of homes is down and the pricing is increasing. My practical experience has been showing the same trend and unfortunately the banks know it and the pricing is going up during their short sale processing time.
So if you are a buyer, is it better to go after either foreclosures or normal sales and get in on the appreciation vs. waiting for the short sale bank just to raise the price or foreclose on a home you have a contract on and then you have to start all over at a higher price level?
Give me a call or email me to discuss your specific circumstances, so we can develop a strategy that best fits your situation.


